North Korea needs a satellite.

Satellite is key to this guy's stability.

So soon after agreeing on a moratorium on all missile testings and other nuclear-related activities in exchange for American food aid, the North Koreans are again making what appears to be a complete u-turn: They will launch a satellite into orbit next month. While, as Pyongyang insists, a satellite launch is different from a ballistic missile testing, both use the same technology. The proposed launch, therefore, could in fact be a violation of the spirit of last month’s Leap Day Deal.

Not surprisingly, the Asian neighborhood is abuzz: South Korea is condemning its northern neighbor for this latest provocation, the Philippines is seeking US help in monitoring the North Korean rocket, while Japan is thinking of shooting that rocket down. The United States has said it might hold off the food aid. Even China, Kim Jong-un’s only ally, is reportedly peeved. What’s with the North Koreans?

A nuclear-armed North Korea is here to stay.

Kim Jong-un: "Our nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. When we drop nukes, our enemies become peaceful."

When North Korea announced a couple of weeks ago that it’s putting a moratorium on all missile testings and other nuclear-related activities in exchange for American offer of 250,000 tons of food, the mainstream media called it a breakthrough. Some thought it a sign that the new North Korean leadership wants to return to the negotiation table again, or that the moderate factions are gaining the upper hand in Pyongyang. I think it was merely another ploy to gain short-term concessions.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton characterized the announcement as a “modest first step in the right direction.” She didn’t say where exactly this right direction leads to, but if she thinks it’s a negotiated denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, I’m afraid she’ll be very disappointed. The fact of the matter is that the North Koreans will never give up their nuclear weapons. At least not through diplomacy.

Interesting times ahead in North Korea.

Goodbye, earthlings!

The Dear Leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Kim Jong-il, has died. His seventeen-year “enlightened” rule will be commemorated in a grand state funeral scheduled next week. The government has now called on the North Korean people to “loyally follow” the Young Leader at the Forefront of the Revolution, Kim Jong-un, as he leads the country towards the 2012 Year of Prosperity.

Except that he won’t really lead the country to prosperity, of course. And this is not only because, as anyone can point out, it’s impossible for the seclusive and impoverished pariah state that is the Democratic People’s Republic to attain prosperity in the immediate future; it’s also because the Young Leader would not lead North Korea at all. Or at least not yet. The man to watch is not really Kim Jong-un but his uncle, Chang Song-Taek.

Crisis calls for tough balancing act.

So, both Washington and Seoul are convinced that based on overwhelming evidence a North Korean torpedo is responsible for the sinking of South Korean ship Cheonan. This has to be the toughest challenge yet to maintaining the pale imitation of stability in Northeast Asia.

Kim Jong-Il launches his rockets.

And the biggest gainer is Taro Aso

For the nth time, global attention is on North Korea as it defiantly carried out just a while ago a rocket launch seen by many in the region as provocative.

According to a report by the Associated Press, the “liftoff took place at 11:30 a.m. (0230GMT) Sunday from the coastal Musudan-ri launch pad innortheastern North Korea.”

Not surprisingly, the launch was followed by a chorus of condemnations from some world leaders. President Barack Obama called it “provocative” while President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea called it “reckless.” Japan, meanwhile, has requested an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council which will begin hours from now.

Political kabuki.

Japan’s warning to North Korea over its planned missile launch reveals the willingness and the ability of Tokyo to flex some of its military muscles amidst its supposed “lack of a standing military forces.” Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamuro said Japan could shoot down the rockets.

“Legally speaking, if this object falls toward Japan, we can shoot it down for safety reasons,” he asserted.

Yesterday, North Korea revealed coordinates forming two zones where parts of the multiple-stage rocket would fall, unveiling its plan to fire the projectile over Japan toward the Pacific Ocean sometime between April 4 and 8. One of the “danger” zones where the rocket’s first stage is expected to fall is in waters less than 75 miles from Japan’s northwestern shore.

Rough sailing indeed.

Last December, I speculated that 2009 would be a tough year for the Six-Party Talks on the North Korean Nuclear Crisis. It seems I was right.

Last year, Pyongyang embarked on its usual saber-rattling rethoric after Japan decided to halt its fuel aid to the hermit country for its “failure to resolve” the issue of North Korean abductions of Japanese nationals. The North Koreans insisted that the issue has been resolved, claiming that the Japanese abductees are already dead. Japan refutes this, saying Pyongyang has consistently failed to present conclusive pieces of evidence that will prove the death of the abductees.

And yesterday, an ex-spy from North Korea who had defected to and is now living in South Korea, Kim Hyon Hui, met with the family of Yaeko Taguchi, one of the Japanese abductees, in Busan. Kim told Taguchi’s relatives that the abductee is still alive.

Rough sailing ahead for the six-party talks.

Looks like 2009 would be a tough year for the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear crisis.

A Japanese newspaper has reported that a senior North Korean diplomat has stated that Pyongyang would halt the process of dismantling its nuclear facilities unless Japan “implements heavy fuel assistance” to the hermit regime.

It can be remembered that right after the appointment of conservative Taro Aso as Japan’s prime minister this year, Tokyo announced that it will no longer extend fuel aid to North Korea unless progress is made on the abductions issue. In turn, North Korea has accused Japan of not fullfilling its end of the bargain, claiming that fuel aid has already been agreed upon in the negotiations.

Terrorist state no more?

And so we saw yet another concession to Kim Jong Il last week coming from US President George W. Bush: the removal of North Korea from the list of terrorist-sponsoring states.

Bush promised to do this as early as June, when the North Koreans agreed to dismantle their facilities at Yongbyon; but the US postponed the delisting after Pyongyang refused to agree on the method for verifying the dismantlement of the programs. Last month, Kim ordered to restore the plutonium-producing facilities and talks of another nuclear test began to leak, prompting the Bush administration to finally remove Pyongyang off the list.

The Koreas: Honeymoon over.

In a previous blog entry about the six-party talks, I explained why testing nuclear bombs was a wise thing for Kim Jong Il to do. The logic was simple: if you have the bomb, others will take you seriously.

And indeed Kim was taken seriously. George W. Bush had to embarrass himself by giving a lot of concessions to the dismay of his neocon friends and even at the expense of US relations with the Japanese who are still stuck on the Abduction Issue.

In return, the North Koreans gave less. They refuse to account for their nuclear arsenal, and they still have not disclosed anything with regards to their dealings with rougue states like Syria. They even missed their Dec. 31 deadline of dismantling their nuclear reactors.