Abenomics: More politics than economics.

Shinzo Abe: Buying his way to victory in July’s Upper House elections

In Tokyo, newly-installed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has unveiled a massive, multi-billion dollar stimulus package, ostensibly to get the static Japanese economy moving. The announcement came after the Prime Minister, in an obvious PR blitz, formed an “economic revitalization council” composed not only of Cabinet members but experts from the academe and the private sector, and called for greater monetary intervention to devalue the Yen.

If these are all designed to shed the Prime Minister’s image as a security hawk out of touch with important domestic concerns– an image that helped ruin his first administration from 2006 to 2007– to a premier who prioritizes the economy, then they’re probably working. Many in Tokyo are now saying that the new administration is a lot better than the one it replaced, simply because it is seen to be doing something. The media has even come up with a nickname for the Prime Minister’s economic policy: Abenomics.

On Manila’s support for the “rearming” of Japan.

Would Japan’s re-militarization be a stabilizing factor?

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario made news last week for expressing support for the “rearming” of Japan, saying Manila is “looking for balancing factors in the region,” and that Tokyo “could be a significant balancing factor,” presumably against an increasingly-assertive China.

It seems to me that the subliminal message of the way the international press has reported the Secretary’s comments is that, because of China’s intransigence, Japan’s standing among Asian countries is changing. Here are my two cents:

China has unleashed a mad genie.

By encouraging widespread anti-Japan protests, China is again playing a very dangerous game.

Following the unprecedented inclusion of the disputed Senkaku Islands in the official Chinese baselines map, Beijing sent a flotilla of six maritime vessels in the disputed waters to challenge Japan’s possession of the disputed territory last Friday. The flotilla left on the same day, but its deployment was reminiscent of the stand-off between China and the Philippines earlier this year. Osamu Fujimura, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, called it an “invasion.”

Meanwhile, massive and violent anti-Japan protests continue to sweep major Chinese cities, threatening Japanese nationals and business establishments. The protests, endorsed by the semi-official Chinese media, have an unmistakable imprimatur from among the higher-ups in Beijing. The Chinese government itself has been scrapping official contacts with Japan, and linking such cancellations to the simmering territorial dispute. All these, according to China, are consequences of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s “reckless” decision to “nationalize” the Senkaku Islands. In short, Japan provoked China.

Ozawa underwhelms.

No, not the porn star.

It’s difficult to make sense of Ichiro Ozawa’s resignation from the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) because, well, it just doesn’t make sense.

Only fifty-one of the so-called Ozawa children joined the ex-DPJ strongman when he defected on Monday, and two of them backtracked on the very same day, bringing the number of pro-Ozawa defectors to forty-nine. Not only is this number not enough to deprive the DPJ of its majority in the Lower House, it’s also decreasing. Yesterday, one Ozawa defector repented to the DPJ while another declared that he will not be joining an Ozawa proto-party but will instead be an independent.

Noda’s LDP card.

Prime Minister Noda: Which “opposition” is he trying to lure?

Tokyo is currently abuzz over the decision of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to reshuffle his Cabinet yesterday. He fired key officials like Justice Minister Toshio Ogawa; Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister and former candidate for Prime Minister Michihiko Kano;  Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism Minister Takeshi Maeda; and Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka. Kano’s ministry was implicated in a recent Chinese spy scandal, while the other ministers have been widely criticized for several embarrassing gaffes. Maeda and Tanaka, for example, had been officially censured by the opposition-controlled House of Councillors.

But the motivation behind the sacking of these ranking officials is not to impose accountability for their infractions but to pave the way for negotiations with the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over the proposed increase in the country’s sales tax, the Prime Minister’s pet project. In short, the ministers are being offered to the opposition as sacrificial lambs.

Understanding Fukushima.

A baby is checked for radiation during the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year (Asahi Shinbun Photo)

Japan and the world pause in prayer today for the victims of the earthquake and tsunami that hit the country’s northeastern region exactly one year ago. The said natural disasters led to the meltdown of several reactors in one of Tokyo Electric Power Corporation (Tepco)’s nuclear power plant in Fukushima prefecture. Although the Japanese government at that time tried to downplay the extent of that nuclear whammy, ostensibly to prevent widespread public panic and chaos; it was, in retrospect, the greatest existential threat Japan has ever faced since World War II.

While the earthquake and tsunami were natural disasters that were beyond human control, the Fukushima disaster wasn’t. The best way to honor the victims of the March 3, 2011 disasters, therefore, is to understand what went wrong in Fukushima with the view of preventing, or at least mitigating, another such disaster.

Hashimoto’s revolution.

Toru Hashimoto: The revolutionary from Osaka.

The unfolding political tectonic shifts in Japan that I described in a previous post has become more interesting. Apparently, Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto’s goals are no longer limited to regionalist devolution. It appears that what he really wants– and this is not really a surprise to observers who have been closely following the flamboyant mayor– is a new Japanese revolution, perhaps one as big as the Meiji Restoration itself.

Last week, Hashimoto’s political party, the Osaka Restoration Association (Osaka Isshin no Kai), promulgated a list of goals that it said it would pursue should it enter national politics. These goals include the removal of pension for rich retirees; the abolition of grants from Tokyo to local governments and its replacement with direct local government taxation; the abolition of the House of Councillors; and, as if these weren’t bold enough, the direct election of the Prime Minister. In short, Hashimoto’s clique is calling for a shift from a unitary, bi-cameral parliamentary configuration to a quasi-federal, unicameral quasi-presidential form of government.

Regionalism provoking tectonic shifts in Japan.

Banzai. Toru Hashimoto and Ichiro Matsui celebrate their double victory in Osaka. (Asahi Shinbun Photo).

Japan’s Agency for Reconstruction, a full-fledged cabinet ministry with three bureaus and six branches, has debuted yesterday in Tokyo to coordinate the government’s efforts to rehabilitate the country eleven months after the infamous Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear whammy. While everyone wishes the Agency well, it is clear that reconstructing the country requires not more bureaucracy but a sense of unity among the country’s leaders. Unfortunately, there’s no such unity; bickerings among the different political actors continue to plague the country’s leadership.

Of course, as a student of politics, I find these bickerings, and the political maneuverings that come with them, very interesting. Fascinating political developments have been unfolding in the country recently. Just as everybody thought that there couldn’t have been anything more dramatic than the ouster of the long-entrenched Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 2007, the resulting shadow battle between the reformists and the political establishment, and what everyone thought was a track towards a two-party system; more tectonic shifts are actually occurring: ones characterized by the rise of new political actors, the re-invigoration of previously marginalized political actors, and the corresponding reaction from the traditional political actors. And these shifts have been triggered not from Tokyo but from Osaka, Nagoya, and other regional centers.

On Japan’s new leader.

Cold pizza: Japan's new PM, Yoshihiko Noda

Later today, the Diet of Japan will proclaim a new Prime Minister for the sixth time in five years. The man, Yoshihiko Noda, has vowed to unite the country in order to move it forward. But before he could seek to unify his country, he would have to unify his own party first.

Noda’s election was a result of a process that drew the interest of many students of modern politics. It was an epic political battle that saw the defeat of Japan’s erstwhile shadow shogun, Ichiro Ozawa.

Japan’s petty political intramurals.

Japan's leaders: Too busy with politics.

Today, members of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will participate in the most important election for Prime Minister of Japan in the decade.

Obviously, much is at stake in this election; the new leader must have the ability and the willingness to unite his people in rebuilding an earthquake-torn country in the short term, and reversing the downward spiral brought about by the Bubble and the subsequent two-and-a-half decades of stagnation in the long term. Given these urgencies, it’s reasonable for an ordinary Japanese to expect an election marked by a high level of discourse, with statesmen exchanging visions that would inspire their countrymen to rebuild their country and end the prevailing national malaise.