Thaksin’s other sister.

The Prime Minister and the spare tire.

A week before the Philippines achieved its first investment grade status, credit ratings agency Fitch upgraded Thailand’s ratings three notches higher than non-investment levels. The said upgrades were in recognition of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s ability to maintain political stability just a couple of years after divisions created by his brother Thaksin almost succeeded in tearing Thailand apart.

A farang expert on Thai politics once described Thaksin as a Thai Mussolini. The erstwhile mogul and former police chief built a patronage system that rivals that of the monarchy’s. His strong support base, composed mostly of the rural poor in the kingdom’s Isan region, made him a formidable alternative power pole to King Bhumibol Adulyadej‘s circle. His populist economic policy– dubbed by Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as Thaksinomics– gave Thailand its first economic turn-around since the Asian Financial Crisis; but his tenure was marked with alleged corruption, human rights abuses, and authoritarian tendencies. In 2006, he was ousted in a military coup that was widely believed to have been engineered by the President of His Majesty’s Privy Council, General Prem Tinsunalonda.

Yingluck’s phyrric victory?

Prime Minister Yingluck kowtows.

So Parliament President Somsak Kiatsuranont has decided to postpone the third reading of the charter change bill.

The Constitution Court has earlier issued an injunction on further parliamentary actions on the said bill, but the Pheau Thai Party questioned the Court’s jurisdiction, pointing out that the Constitution and jurisprudence dictate that judicial review of parliamentary actions must be prompted by the Attorney-General first. An association of law professors, Red Shirt activists, and several Pheau Thai lawmakers had been calling on Parliament to defy the Court. A constitutional crisis would have ensued had Speaker Somsak heeded them.

Another showdown in Thailand?

Testy truce:  Privy Council’s General Prem and Prime Minister Yingluck.

The current truce between Thailand’s royalist elite and the populist government led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, whose brother Thaksin was ousted in a royally-sanctioned coup in 2006, has been a refreshing respite from the taxing instability that the Kingdom had to endure during the latter part of the last decade.  Unfortunately, a storm that could disturb this fragile peace seems to be brewing in Bangkok.

On one hand, the Parliament and the Constitution Court are on a collision course over the ruling Puea Thai Party’s moves to have the military-imposed 2006 Constitution replaced. The Court, invoking its judicial review powers, has issued a restraining order against parliamentary debates on the proposed charter change measure; but the ruling party insists that the Court has no jurisdiction, citing a constitutional provision that says judicial review of parliamentary bills must be prompted by the Attorney-General first. Nitirat, an organization of law professors from Thammasat University, has urged the Parliament to defy the high court.

Thailand after Bhumibol.

The royalist political order will probably die with him.

As the pompous Coronation Day celebrations in Thailand climaxed yesterday, I was reminded of an old Thai prophecy that says the present Chakri dynasty would only last for nine generations—King Bhumibol Adulyadej is the ninth Chakri monarch—and that a tenth one would be disastrous. Given the current political context in Thailand, this prediction has become nine times more believable today.

King Bhumibol is without a doubt the most notable Southeast Asian monarch since King Chulalongkorn the Great, who modernized Siam and kept it free from colonial control. Ascending to the then largely irrelevant throne by accident in 1946, he saved it from extinction and, through his charisma and political acumen, revived it to become one of the few politically-relevant monarchies in modern times. Skillful in dispensing patronage and influence, he became politically powerful to the point that he could make national leaders come on their knees, literally, when summoned.

Thaksin is back.

Well, his allies are.

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajiva of the Democrat Party has reportedly conceded defeat to the opposition Pheu Thai party after exit polls projected a landslide victory for the pro-Thaksin opposition. Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, is certain to be the next prime minister. Reports seems to suggest that her party will be able to form a government without the need to negotiate coalitions with smaller parties.

Abhisit a democrat?

I know it’s common for ambassadors everywhere to kiss their prime minister’s ass, but the remarks made by Thai envoy in Manila Kulukumut Singhara Na Ayudhaya made me squirm. In an interview with the Inquirer, Kulukumut said: “Our prime minister is too much democratic. He wants to solve the situation in a democratic way. He wants to use soft measure to make people come together”

I wonder if democratic and “soft” measures have different meanings in Thailand, because in other places leading a government devoid of electoral mandate and letting the army shoot on the protesters are neither the”democratic way” nor a “soft measure.”

Double standards.

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajiva has declared a state of emergency in Bangkok in an effort to quell the violent protest actions by the red shirted supporters of ousted leader Thaksin Shinawatra. The emergency declaration empowers the police and the military to disperse a gathering of five people, make warrant-less arrests and even censor the media. Abhisit’s deputy, Channel News Asia reported yesterday, appealed on the army to impose this emergency declaration.

The army heeded his appeal. A while ago, troops fired rubber bullets and threw tear gases on the protesters, who vowed to continue their protests until the government calls for an election. The confrontation is poised to turn bloody in the next hours, and many countries, including Japan and the Philippines, have issued travel advisories urging their citizens to avoid Thailand.

Thailand: A banana kingdom, thanks to PAD.

I have long feared that the political instability in Thailand would one day spill over and affect the rest of the ASEAN. And it happened yesterday.

The East Asia summit– and along with it the signing of an agreement allowing the members of the ASEAN to receive about $10 billion in infrastructural loan from China– was aborted after angry demonstrators trooped to the hotel where the leaders of the region were staying.

A while ago, the embattled prime minister of Thailand, Abhisit Vehjajiva, addressed his deeply divided nation, vowing to restore order following one of the biggest embarrassments his country had in recent years. He began by arresting one of the leaders of the protesters, a singer-activist named Arismun Pongreungrong. But the protests are continuing and it is doubtful that the government in Bangkok can contain it, unless it uses violence or heeds the demands of the protesters.